Rebounded nicely with a 5-2 week, the only blemishes being a UAB loss despite outgaining Southern Miss, and a shocking blowout of UNLV by Kansas.
5-2 +2.80 last week
8-7 +0.30 overall
Leans were 6-5 last week, bringing them to 13-10 on the season.
On to the plays:
OREGON STATE -20.5 Over New Mexico State
Oregon State will be looking to rebound after a road loss to Fresno last Friday, and New Mexico State, after getting it handed to them by Texas, beat up on some lousy West New Mexico team. Oregon State has shown a passing bias so far this season, and New Mexico State hasn't fared well so far against the pass, giving up 7.64 yards per attempt. Oregon State can also mix in the run quite well, leaving the Aggie D vulnerable. It's no secret that NM State likes to run the ball with their option style attack, but Oregon State has been solid against the run so far, only giving up 60 yards per game, albeit against not great rushing offenses. When forced to pass, NM State has a lot of problems moving the ball, and with Oregon State's ability to score, this game should play out as a blowout. Reasons to lay off - hard to really find anything, as the technicals and intangibles point to Oregon State as well. New Mexico State has pulled off upsets on the road before, and really aren't that horrible of a team (in fact, they are one of the better Sun Belt clubs). But I just think they don't match up well here, and with the Beavers off a loss, they should hang a big W here.
SAN DIEGO STATE -18.5 Over Utep
San Diego State is laying nearly 3 TD's on the road here, and that is scary enough. But looking at the results for the first two weekends, and the matchups here, this has the makings of a very ugly game. UTEP was crushed by a Division I-AA club, Cal-Poly last week, and was beaten easily by Arizona. San Diego State looked very good against the national champs last week, almost pulling off the shocker. I have this team ranked very high defensively at all areas, and UTEP's passing offense will have a rough time, since this is by far the best defense they have faced to date. The Aztecs are no juggernaut on offense, which worries me a bit, but this UTEP defense is in the bottom 5 in all defensive categories so far in my rankings, and even bad O teams score a lot on these types. Reasons to lay off - To cover 19, you have to score 19, and SD State's offense has yet to really come out firing. Another fear is that because a team lost to a lower calibre team, the line may be overinflated, especially considering SD State's success last week at the Horseshoe.
BOISE STATE -21.5 Over Idaho
Boise has been everyone's spread gods the last few years, and I look for things to continue this way. Hard to judge Boise's level after a win over Idaho State, but I have them ranked top 20 in all D categories, and number 1 against the pass in the nation. Idaho will be hard pressed to move the ball through the air against them at all, and they have a mediocre at best running game. Boise is loaded again on offense, and should take advantage of a porous Idaho D that was butchered by the Cougars in their opener. Reasons to lay off - as I said, it's hard to judge Boise this season so far, and Idaho did cover the spread against them easily last week. Boise has a road game at Oregon State next week and could be peeking, and Idaho has been successful out of conference against the spread, meaning that the linesmakers may be underrating them against better schools.
ALABAMA -13.5 Over Kentucky
This team is much better than I expected, and I think Kentucky is really in for a beating here. The Wildcats were terrible defensively in the rain at home against Louisville, which was breaking in a new QB. Alabama looked very solid on O against South Florida, and had showed flashes against a great D last week. Kentucky ran the ball more than I expected against Louisville, which was probably due to the rain. Alabama is very solid overall on D, and if Kentucky tries to establish the run, the Tide should shut it down, making the Cats a very one-dimensional team that will need a stellar game from Lorenzen to cover, let alone win. Reasons to lay off - Alabama has been poor in SEC openers, and Kentucky is usually undervalued on the road in September. Also, KY has had success ATS against the SEC West. Fundamentally, if KY passing game is on, the Tide has shown some lapses in the secondary.
UCLA -10.5 Over Illinois
Getting back on the Bruins again this week, as their defense was as good as I thought, limiting Colorado to only 16 points (should have been 17, but the kicker bailed out the UCLA bettors). Illinois has been sketchy against the pass this year, giving up 6.58 YPA to Missouri and Illinois State, not exactly pass happy offenses. Dwayne Smith of Illinois State had 14 catches for 243 yards against the Illini. So, now, the Illini goes on the road to face a very good defensive team, and a passing team to boot. UCLA has covered 9 straight home openers, and I think they are laying a fair price here. Reasons to lay off - Illinois has been a good road team in September, and has been money on grass surfaces. UCLA has some off the field turmoil as well, with their third stringer suspended. Their starter Moore is out 4-6 weeks, making the backup this week a walk-on freshman.
MIAMI, OH -3 Over Northwestern
Northwestern goes from one extreme to the other, an all run Air Force team, to a mostly pass Miami, OH team. The Cats will be better suited to stop the run this year than the pass, and Miami QB Rothlesberger should exploit an untested secondary. Miami, OH did not look great against Iowa, but are taking a step down in talent. Northwestern is a very talented offense, but I think that Miami's defense is much stronger than it showed against Iowa, and will rebound nicely here and get the W in Evanston. Miami, OH has had two weeks to prepare here, and catches NW off very difficult loss at home to Air Force. Miami, OH also has no fear of Northwestern or Evanston with 3 wins in a row there. Reasons to lay off - Northwestern at home with a great offense, getting points looks very enticing, especially since Iowa is supposed to be down a bit this year and considering how Miami played against Iowa.
DUKE -10.5 Over Rice
Duke laying double digits is enough to make anyone look the other way. But this Rice team looks really bad on the D side of the ball, and Duke, despite getting shut out by Virginia, should still be capable on offense this season, and should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. Rice runs the tricky O, but Duke has looked good defensivly so far, especially against the run, which is all Rice can do. I will take my chances laying the number here. Reasons to lay off - Duke is abysmal as a home favorite the last 7 years and is a bad ATS bet in non-conference games. Rice has had a week to prepare here, and may cause havoc with their offensive schemes. Duke is not Oklahoma, and double digit wins are not easy to come by for them.
Leans this week:
Louisville/Syracuse Over 58
Louisiana Tech/Michigan State Under 61
UNLV/Wisconsin Under 57
Arkansas/Texas Over 47
Miami, FL -40.5 Over East Carolina
Fresno State +29 Over Oklahoma
SMU +2 Over Baylor (God I really want to play this)
Nebraska -10 Over Penn State
North Texas +8 Over Air Force
Good luck,
HW
5-2 +2.80 last week
8-7 +0.30 overall
Leans were 6-5 last week, bringing them to 13-10 on the season.
On to the plays:
OREGON STATE -20.5 Over New Mexico State
Oregon State will be looking to rebound after a road loss to Fresno last Friday, and New Mexico State, after getting it handed to them by Texas, beat up on some lousy West New Mexico team. Oregon State has shown a passing bias so far this season, and New Mexico State hasn't fared well so far against the pass, giving up 7.64 yards per attempt. Oregon State can also mix in the run quite well, leaving the Aggie D vulnerable. It's no secret that NM State likes to run the ball with their option style attack, but Oregon State has been solid against the run so far, only giving up 60 yards per game, albeit against not great rushing offenses. When forced to pass, NM State has a lot of problems moving the ball, and with Oregon State's ability to score, this game should play out as a blowout. Reasons to lay off - hard to really find anything, as the technicals and intangibles point to Oregon State as well. New Mexico State has pulled off upsets on the road before, and really aren't that horrible of a team (in fact, they are one of the better Sun Belt clubs). But I just think they don't match up well here, and with the Beavers off a loss, they should hang a big W here.
SAN DIEGO STATE -18.5 Over Utep
San Diego State is laying nearly 3 TD's on the road here, and that is scary enough. But looking at the results for the first two weekends, and the matchups here, this has the makings of a very ugly game. UTEP was crushed by a Division I-AA club, Cal-Poly last week, and was beaten easily by Arizona. San Diego State looked very good against the national champs last week, almost pulling off the shocker. I have this team ranked very high defensively at all areas, and UTEP's passing offense will have a rough time, since this is by far the best defense they have faced to date. The Aztecs are no juggernaut on offense, which worries me a bit, but this UTEP defense is in the bottom 5 in all defensive categories so far in my rankings, and even bad O teams score a lot on these types. Reasons to lay off - To cover 19, you have to score 19, and SD State's offense has yet to really come out firing. Another fear is that because a team lost to a lower calibre team, the line may be overinflated, especially considering SD State's success last week at the Horseshoe.
BOISE STATE -21.5 Over Idaho
Boise has been everyone's spread gods the last few years, and I look for things to continue this way. Hard to judge Boise's level after a win over Idaho State, but I have them ranked top 20 in all D categories, and number 1 against the pass in the nation. Idaho will be hard pressed to move the ball through the air against them at all, and they have a mediocre at best running game. Boise is loaded again on offense, and should take advantage of a porous Idaho D that was butchered by the Cougars in their opener. Reasons to lay off - as I said, it's hard to judge Boise this season so far, and Idaho did cover the spread against them easily last week. Boise has a road game at Oregon State next week and could be peeking, and Idaho has been successful out of conference against the spread, meaning that the linesmakers may be underrating them against better schools.
ALABAMA -13.5 Over Kentucky
This team is much better than I expected, and I think Kentucky is really in for a beating here. The Wildcats were terrible defensively in the rain at home against Louisville, which was breaking in a new QB. Alabama looked very solid on O against South Florida, and had showed flashes against a great D last week. Kentucky ran the ball more than I expected against Louisville, which was probably due to the rain. Alabama is very solid overall on D, and if Kentucky tries to establish the run, the Tide should shut it down, making the Cats a very one-dimensional team that will need a stellar game from Lorenzen to cover, let alone win. Reasons to lay off - Alabama has been poor in SEC openers, and Kentucky is usually undervalued on the road in September. Also, KY has had success ATS against the SEC West. Fundamentally, if KY passing game is on, the Tide has shown some lapses in the secondary.
UCLA -10.5 Over Illinois
Getting back on the Bruins again this week, as their defense was as good as I thought, limiting Colorado to only 16 points (should have been 17, but the kicker bailed out the UCLA bettors). Illinois has been sketchy against the pass this year, giving up 6.58 YPA to Missouri and Illinois State, not exactly pass happy offenses. Dwayne Smith of Illinois State had 14 catches for 243 yards against the Illini. So, now, the Illini goes on the road to face a very good defensive team, and a passing team to boot. UCLA has covered 9 straight home openers, and I think they are laying a fair price here. Reasons to lay off - Illinois has been a good road team in September, and has been money on grass surfaces. UCLA has some off the field turmoil as well, with their third stringer suspended. Their starter Moore is out 4-6 weeks, making the backup this week a walk-on freshman.
MIAMI, OH -3 Over Northwestern
Northwestern goes from one extreme to the other, an all run Air Force team, to a mostly pass Miami, OH team. The Cats will be better suited to stop the run this year than the pass, and Miami QB Rothlesberger should exploit an untested secondary. Miami, OH did not look great against Iowa, but are taking a step down in talent. Northwestern is a very talented offense, but I think that Miami's defense is much stronger than it showed against Iowa, and will rebound nicely here and get the W in Evanston. Miami, OH has had two weeks to prepare here, and catches NW off very difficult loss at home to Air Force. Miami, OH also has no fear of Northwestern or Evanston with 3 wins in a row there. Reasons to lay off - Northwestern at home with a great offense, getting points looks very enticing, especially since Iowa is supposed to be down a bit this year and considering how Miami played against Iowa.
DUKE -10.5 Over Rice
Duke laying double digits is enough to make anyone look the other way. But this Rice team looks really bad on the D side of the ball, and Duke, despite getting shut out by Virginia, should still be capable on offense this season, and should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. Rice runs the tricky O, but Duke has looked good defensivly so far, especially against the run, which is all Rice can do. I will take my chances laying the number here. Reasons to lay off - Duke is abysmal as a home favorite the last 7 years and is a bad ATS bet in non-conference games. Rice has had a week to prepare here, and may cause havoc with their offensive schemes. Duke is not Oklahoma, and double digit wins are not easy to come by for them.
Leans this week:
Louisville/Syracuse Over 58
Louisiana Tech/Michigan State Under 61
UNLV/Wisconsin Under 57
Arkansas/Texas Over 47
Miami, FL -40.5 Over East Carolina
Fresno State +29 Over Oklahoma
SMU +2 Over Baylor (God I really want to play this)
Nebraska -10 Over Penn State
North Texas +8 Over Air Force
Good luck,
HW
